5 AI-Powered NFC Championship Predictions for Lions vs. 49ers
After defeating the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the divisional game, the NFC San Francisco team is in high spirits. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy guided the club to a victory after trailing 21-14 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey scored the game-winning touchdown.
The previous weekend, the Lions defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–23 to advance. Now, for the second time since 1991, the Lions, captained by quarterback Jared Goff, will play in the NFC Championship.
The Niners are favored by 5.5 points and have a 69% chance of winning the game, according to Heavy’s partners in the fourth quarter. As of right now, the over/under is 54 points; more on that later.
Here are five predictions made by AI for the NFC Championship game
1. Arik Armstead Might Play Well in This One
Erik Armstead, a defensive tackle for San Francisco that participated in 12 games during the regular season, hadn’t played since December 3 until last week when he faced the Packers.
He immediately made an impression on the interior, finishing with five pressures on 29 rush snaps. Armstead is expected to have another big game against Detroit in the fourth quarter.
Armstead averaged 0.4 sacks per game across his 12 games, or 5.5 sacks overall. According to the heavy model, he should have 0.7 sacks for this game. That is a noteworthy 75% increase over his average. The Niners’ D-lineman also increased his solo tackle average by 38.5% in the fourth quarter.
2. 49ers RB Will Remain With Lions D: A Check on Christian McCaffrey
During the regular season, McCaffrey led the NFL in both rushing yards (1,459) and total yards from scrimmage (2,023). In the divisional round, he continued to perform at a high level. McCaffrey produced two touchdowns and 128 total yards against the Packers.
With 21 total touchdowns this season, 14 of which came on the ground, he has been an absolute touchdown machine. McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards throughout the regular season with seven games with 100 or more.
The All-Pro RB is expected to end with 82.5 yards on 19.1 rushing attempts in the fourth quarter, up from his 17.0 average. However, their AI-powered forecasts indicate that McCaffrey’s chances of rushing for a score are significantly lower than typical. In the heavier version, McCaffrey rushes for 0.5 touchdowns. That feels like a big drop from his 0.9 average per game, which was 44.4% lower.
One of the best matchups in this game should be watching the Niners’ all-everything back-face Aidan Hutchinson and company.
3. Designate a St. Brown
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions had a successful first All-Pro season this year. The third-year wide receiver has 134 catches for 1,702 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season, not counting Detroit’s two postseason games.
In the playoffs, he has 15 receptions for 187 yards (12.5 yards per catch) and one touchdown; according to our model, he will continue to be effective against the 49ers.St. Brown is expected to have 6.5 catches for 84.3 yards and 1.0 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. With the Lions wide receiver averaging 0.6 touchdowns per game this season, the positive differential is 66.7%. Eight of his previous eleven games have seen him score a touchdown, including one last week against the Buccaneers in the divisional round. Here, look for him to locate the end zone once more.
4. The Defense of San Francisco Will Attack First
With just 17.5 points allowed per game during the regular season, the 49ers had the third-best scoring defense in the NFL. San Francisco’s defense, which is led by LB Fred Warner, defensive lineman Nick Bosa, and Armstead, has been bothering opposing quarterbacks all season. Goff might want to get ready.
According to estimates, San Francisco has an 80% chance of recording the first interception of the game and an 82% chance of recording the first sack.
San Francisco’s defense finished with 48 sacks throughout the season, and the team had the second-highest interception percentage (3.5%) in the NFL. With a first-round bye, the Niners D were a little rusty and lacked a weapon against the Pac.
5. Since this should be a high-scoring game, take the over.
The over/under is set at 50.5 or 51.0 points by some bookies. It is at 54.0 points on the heavy model. Given that both teams have potent offenses and strong defenses, the offensive side is probably going to prevail.
A shootout may be in store, as Goff and Purdy are both among the top five in passing yards and touchdowns thrown this season.
One item to monitor is 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel’s injury status.
San Francisco’s offensive average in the three games Samuel missed this season was a mere 17 points per contest. Samuel is 50/50 to play today after suffering a shoulder injury in the divisional round against the Packers, according to ESPN.
