Election observers have long anticipated that a small number of states will determine the outcome of the presidential campaign, but several of those battleground states are becoming more competitive due to Vice President Kamala Harris’s Democratic surge.
Seven states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada) were determined by three points or less in 2020.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, notes that the primary battleground states are the focus of both the Trump and Harris campaigns.
With the exception of North Carolina, Joe Biden prevailed in six of the seven crucial swing states in 2020. With the exception of Nevada, Trump won six of the seven states in 2016,” Kondik stated.
Polls before to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal indicated that Trump was ahead in the most of the seven battlegrounds, if not all of them. However, since Harris emerged as the Democratic front-runner, the prediction algorithms are tilting towards her.
“It appeared as though Nevada was off the table. That’s now relevant again. Arizona was heading out of their reach. Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, said, “You know, we’ve seen her reinvigorate young voters, voters of color, including both Latinos and Black voters, and that has just really sort of changed the map and the math, and now there are multiple paths.”
Kondik concurs that Harris has been successful in uniting the Democratic Party.
“She has done a better job of uniting the Democratic coalition, and perhaps as the campaign went on, some of those supporters would have come around to Biden. But maybe not. However, he added, “I think there were legitimate concerns about Biden’s capacity to handle some of the fundamentals of running a campaign, and those aren’t worries about Harris.
Though the state has only been blue once in the past 40 years, in 2008 for former President Barack Obama, Democrats still hope to be competitive in North Carolina. On Tuesday, The Cook Political Report released an updated rating. It changed North Carolina from leaning Republican to a toss-up, while it changed New Hampshire and Minnesota from leans Democratic to likely Democrats.
While attending the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Taylor overheard Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina remark, “It seems like 2008 all over again.”
It appears that Republicans are reacting to the shifts in the race. With a packed campaign agenda this week, Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, will be spending a lot of time in the three battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, and Harris are touring Georgia by bus before Walz attends rallies in North Carolina and Maryland.
Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes up for grabs (19) out of the seven battleground states, suggesting that the Keystone State may hold the key to gaining the White House.