Joe Ryan Over/Under: 175.5 K, 10.5 W, 3.85 ERA
Ryan had a 4.51 ERA for Minnesota the previous season, and ZiPS predicts that he will have a 4.01 ERA this time around. Compared to the final 2023 FIP of 4.13, ZiPS projects him to have a 3.89 FIP this time around. The ball needs to stay in the yard for Ryan to advance significantly, as the Twins anticipate he will. Although his 1.8 HR/9 was a career low, Minnesota’s number two starter might become much more of a force if he can convert some of the big flies into outs.

Ryan had a few rocky patches last year, but he ended up with 11 wins and 197 strikeouts. It’s always dangerous to wager on pitcher wins, and this season it might be even riskier if the Twins rely heavily on their strong-looking bullpen. The over on strikeouts seems like the safest bet in this situation.

Pablo Lopez Over/Under: 203.5 K, 11.5 W, 3.35 ERA
With their pitcher leading the pack to win the American League Cy Young Award, Minnesota heads into the season. Lopez will make the most of all three of them if that is the case. Despite his 3.33 FIP and 3.66 ERA from the previous season, ZiPS projects him to have a 3.68 FIP in 2024. He won’t place in the top five for the end-of-season award with that performance, and I believe it’s reasonable to assume he will.

Lopez had 234 strikeouts in his debut season with Minnesota. That statistic was indicative of both his durability—he was approaching 200 innings—and a career-high strikeout rate. Again, he should have no trouble reaching the 200 strikeout mark, and it also makes sense for him to win 12–15 games. Lopez wasn’t given many opportunities to start last season by the Twins, and I actually prefer the over on his win total.

Byron BuxtonOver/Under: 62.5 RBI, 24.5 HR
Buxton’s expectations and projections are always dependent on his or her availability. This year, he will return to centerfield, something we haven’t seen in a very long time. The Twins will have an MVP contender covering the outfield if he can maintain the health of his knee over that time. As the designated hitter last year, Buxton brought too much Miguel Sano to the field. He has always been more about power than contact.

He should be able to maintain mental clarity by working in the field, and if he plays close to 120 games, his home run total will soar. Despite being in discomfort, he managed to score 17 long balls in 85 games the previous year and 28 home runs in just 92 games in 2022. Give me the over on homers, but I wouldn’t touch the RBI total since it represents opportunity. Invest in Buxton’s well-being this season.

Max Kepler Above/Below: 20.5 HR
Kepler returned to elevating pitches last season after eventually giving up on trying to pound the ball into the ground. That led to the greatest season he has had since 2019, with an OPS+ of 121. He’s playing for his future as well, as he enters the final year of his Twins contract. Anticipate him to follow suit and maintain the momentum of success.

Kepler exceeded the over/under total in 2018 with 24 home runs, even though he only had a.625 OPS in 46 games into the season. If he adopts the same strategy that brought him success from the start, he ought to be far closer to 30 than 20. Here, I’ll assume the lead.

Royce Lewis: 27.5 HR, 80.5 RBI, Over/Under
Like Buxton, Lewis’ story revolves around health. He will produce it if he is available. His two knee problems were somewhat of an accident, and this spring is the first time in years that he hasn’t been recovering from an injury. His swing is spot on, and he was a major factor in Minnesota’s previous season’s playoff triumph.

Lewis should be able to score runs with the power bat because Rocco Baldelli is likely to place him in the middle of the order. It is hoped that when he improves his plate discipline a little bit, he will be able to take walks and pressure pitchers to come to him. Although I doubt he ends up leading the squad in home runs, he has a long chance to top the sport in that category. I’m taking it over there too, but only after considerable hesitation because 28 is a significant number.

Win totals for Minnesota: 85.5 W, 7.5 G Streak
Minnesota won the division the previous year despite never going on a winning streak longer than five games. They had a winning streak of seven games two years ago, but they also lost 84 games. The objective is to stack wins, but winning the series is the actual prize. At best, betting on a streak is a crapshoot; a squad that stays steady will have a successful season-ending performance.

In 2023, it only required 87 victories to win the division; perhaps this time, not many more will be needed. The Twins are still the clear favorite and have a good chance of winning again. They should win 90 games, which gives me ample leeway to seize the lead. They ought to be preferable to simply lounging.500 until the All-Star Break, and the objective will be to establish some early lead.