Even though the regular season isn’t quite over, there is a lot of interest in what a hypothetical Juan Soto free agency would entail. The 26-year-old superstar, one of the most sought-after players in free agency history, will enter the market as the top free agent. It is already generally anticipated that the Yankees and Mets will engage in a bidding war, and wealthy teams like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Giants have also been mentioned as possible destinations. Without Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller at least putting his hat in the ring, not a single significant free agent passes up. There will undoubtedly be other clubs involved.
Soto’s initial club may be one of the other bidders, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN. According to Castillo, the Nationals “would love a reunion” with Soto, but it’s unclear if ownership would be prepared to make a larger offer than they did when Soto turned down a $440 million, 15-year agreement. Many fans were shocked by the choice, but it turned out to be wise in the end. That fifteen-year period would have covered Soto’s last two seasons in arbitration. In any case, he made a total of $54 million over those two seasons. Given his age, track record, and outstanding platform season for free agency, Soto “only” needs to surpass the remaining $386M to win the gambit. It would be shocking if he failed to do so.
Would the Nationals still make that offer? The Lerner family, who own the Nationals, could make a bigger offer than they did the first time around, though it’s hard to predict exactly where they stand in terms of comfort.
For starters, when the Nats made that initial offer to Soto, they were just getting started on a rebuild. At the trade deadline of the previous season, Max Scherzer and Trea Turner were acquired by the Dodgers. The compensation they gained from moving Soto in the first place has helped the Nationals get significantly closer to competing now than they were back then. A rotation seat has been taken by MacKenzie Gore. Despite a poor second half, CJ Abrams has established himself as their shortstop. When James Wood, an outfielder, made his baseball debut in July, he was considered the game’s top prospect. Jarlin Susana, a left-hander, and Robert Hassell III, another outfielder, are still in the minor leagues.
It’s also important to note that at the time, the Lerner family was considering selling the franchise. The process got underway in early 2022. After discussing the possibilities with a few prospective ownership groups, managing principal owner Mark Lerner—the son of the late Ted Lerner, who passed away in 2023—publicly announced that his family is no longer seeking a sale two years later. Lerner informed the Washington Post in February that “we have determined, our family has determined, that we are not going to sell the team.”
The Lerner family’s potential resource allocation is undoubtedly affected by this change in long-term planning. Although making a bid of more than $400 million in the midst of a possible sale process indicates a definite willingness to spend, there were probably constraints on the amount of money ownership wished to record on the long-term books. Since the offer supposedly had no delayed money (a change from their prior big-money transactions, which nearly all featured deferrals), any interested buyers would effectively be on the line for paying out the remaining total.
The Nats are closer to contention now, over two years after that extended offer was made, and their payroll picture is much clearer. The six-year deal that Patrick Corbin is under is ending with this season. Stephen Strasburg, whose career is over but he is still contracted until 2026, and catcher Keibert Ruiz, whose comparatively modest $50M extension goes through 2030 and has an average annual value of $6.25M, are the only players guaranteed any money beyond the current year. Reflecting on their peak in 2019, according to Cot’s Contracts, the Nationals ended the season with a large $205 million payroll. The Nats can certainly afford to assemble a team around him and the rest of their developing core and make a competitive offer.
On that topic, while any team would shuffle pieces around to create place for Soto in its outfield mix, it likely wouldn’t even be required for Washington. In the outfield for the Nats right now are Wood, defensive star Jacob Young, and highly touted prospect Dylan Crews. Although Young is a superb defender, his season hitting line is only.255/.315/.336. He could play centre field on a regular basis while Wood, Crews and Soto took turns playing designated hitter and the two corner positions. He could also be easily moved to a fourth outfield position. Obtaining at-bats for each of those names wouldn’t be too difficult.
Furthermore, the Nats themselves still have a deeper understanding of Soto than any other team in the league. The bulk of the team’s important players were already in place when they first signed and developed Soto. Since 2009, when Soto was eleven years old, Mike Rizzo has served as general manager and president of baseball operations for the Nats. Since the 2006 relocation of the former Expos from Montreal to Washington, D.C., the Lerner family has owned the Nats. Before Soto was dealt to the Padres, Davey Martinez managed each and every game of his major league career. Of course, there are still others from Soto’s time in Washington, D.C., including coaches, scouts, and executives.
The most important query is probably whether Soto would want to rejoin a Nationals team that doesn’t seem like a contender right now. He would have to believe in the potential of players like Brady House, Wood, Crews, Abrams, Gore, and others, as well as the team’s farm system. Soto’s familiarity with Rizzo, especially Martinez, with whom he would communicate frequently, would undoubtedly play a significant role, but he has also developed a good relationship with important officials in the Bronx and San Diego. Soto’s return to Washington would probably have to be motivated, if only in part, by nostalgia and happy recollections of his former organisation, unless the Lerner family completely outbid any opposition.
Soto, who turns 26 in October, is still only 25 years old and is on the verge of signing the biggest contract ever for a position player. In terms of net present value, it’s probably the biggest deal in MLB history as well. The current standard is Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million, ten-year contract; however, due to a massive slate of deferrals, the contract’s net present value is far below that entire amount. Ohtani’s deal has a $46 million luxury hit, and the MLBPA projected the NPV to be $437.5 million.
Although Boras’ remarks following the Ohtani signing imply otherwise, some may wonder if Soto and agent Scott Boras would entertain a comparable offer.In an interview with Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Boras stated that, for a player of Ohtani’s calibre, the deflated NPV of his contract was usually disappointing.
“The market is still as it is,” Boras stated. “No average yearly value of $44 million or more. Unmistakable proof of a planned and coordinated operation.
Though readers are free to judge the merits of that position, it appears to be a strong hint that when Boras makes his own unicorn free agent available this winter, he wants to establish a more tangible new standard in terms of current worth.
In addition to being a four-time All-Star, Soto has also won four Silver Sluggers (he will win a fifth this season), won the World Series, and won the Home Run Derby. His career batting line in the majors is.285/.421/.533, and he is presently having the best 162-game season of his career in terms of rate. With a career-high 39 home runs and a.289/.418/.580 slash line, he has walked in 18% of his plate appearances compared to just 16.2% strikeout rate. He’s headed for his fifth consecutive season in which he walks more often than he strikes out.
In terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate, predicted batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA, and walk rate, Soto is ranked in the 94th percentile or above among all MLB players by Statcast. With the exception of a late injury, he is incredibly durable; he averaged 155 games a season in 2021–2023 and will likely match or surpass that pace in 2024. Although Soto has historically struggled with defence, this season he has had the greatest defensive grades of his career. According to Statcast, his arm strength is in the 97th percentile. His range is restricted to the outfield corners due to his below-average but not sluggish speed.
Naturally, the Nats and other teams are well aware of all of this. A deal that would set a record is due for Soto. Everyone has equal expectations. The current Yankees are expected to be considered the favourites, but there will be fierce competition, and there are many reasons to believe that Soto’s original club might become a real threat in the upcoming bidding war.
